National Science Library of Georgia

Time Predictions (Record no. 524714)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 05452nam a22005535i 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 978-3-319-74953-2
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field DE-He213
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20200127152623.0
007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field cr nn 008mamaa
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 180228s2018 gw | s |||| 0|eng d
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9783319749532
-- 978-3-319-74953-2
024 7# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER
Standard number or code 10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
Source of number or code doi
050 #4 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER
Classification number HB71-74
072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE
Subject category code KCK
Source bicssc
072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE
Subject category code BUS085000
Source bisacsh
072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE
Subject category code KCK
Source thema
082 04 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number 330.01
Edition number 23
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Halkjelsvik, Torleif.
Relator term author.
Relator code aut
-- http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Time Predictions
Medium [electronic resource] :
Remainder of title Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life /
Statement of responsibility, etc by Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen.
250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT
Edition statement 1st ed. 2018.
264 #1 - Production, Publication, Distribution, Manufacture, and Copyright Notice (R)
Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture (R) Cham :
Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer (R) Springer International Publishing :
-- Imprint: Springer,
Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice 2018.
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent XII, 110 p. 12 illus., 11 illus. in color.
Other physical details online resource.
336 ## - Content Type (R)
Content type term (R) text
Content type code (R) txt
Source (NR) rdacontent
337 ## - Media Type (R)
Media type term (R) computer
Media type code (R) c
Source (NR) rdamedia
338 ## - Carrier Type (R)
Carrier type term (R) online resource
Carrier type code (R) cr
Source (NR) rdacarrier
347 ## -
-- text file
-- PDF
-- rda
490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT
სერიის ცნობა Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing ;
Volume number/sequential designation 5
505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note Preface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
506 0# - RESTRICTIONS ON ACCESS NOTE
Terms governing access Open Access
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Behavioral economics.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Personnel management.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Project management.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Management information systems.
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Behavioral/Experimental Economics.
-- http://scigraph.springernature.com/things/product-market-codes/W54000
650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Human Resource Management.
-- http://scigraph.springernature.com/things/product-market-codes/517000
650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Project Management.
-- http://scigraph.springernature.com/things/product-market-codes/515020
650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Software Management.
-- http://scigraph.springernature.com/things/product-market-codes/522050
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Jørgensen, Magne.
Relator term author.
Relator code aut
-- http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut
710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME
Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element SpringerLink (Online service)
773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY
Title Springer eBooks
776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY
Display text Printed edition:
International Standard Book Number 9783319749525
776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY
Display text Printed edition:
International Standard Book Number 9783319749549
830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE
Uniform title Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing ;
Volume number/sequential designation 5
856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Uniform Resource Identifier <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2</a>
912 ## -
-- ZDB-2-ECF
912 ## -
-- ZDB-2-SOB

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