000			02670nam a22003978i 4500
001			CR9781316282472
003			UkCbUP
005			20200124160216.0
006			m|||||o||d||||||||
007			cr||||||||||||
008			141216s2016||||enk o ||1 0|eng|d
020			_a9781316282472 (ebook)
020			_z9781107112087 (hardback)
020			_z9781107531024 (paperback)
040			_aUkCbUP _beng _erda _cUkCbUP
050	0	0	_aJF1525.C6 _bB87 2016
082	0	0	_a658.4/6 _223
100	1		_aBurgman, Mark A., _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aTrusting judgements : _bhow to get the best out of experts / _cMark A. Burgman.
264		1	_aCambridge : _bCambridge University Press, _c2016.
300			_a1 online resource (ix, 203 pages) : _bdigital, PDF file(s).
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
500			_aTitle from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 01 Feb 2016).
505	8		_aMachine generated contents note: Preface; Acknowledgements; 1. What's wrong with consulting experts?; 2. Kinds of uncertainty; 3. What leads experts astray?; 4. Dealing with individual experts; 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited; 6. Tips to get the best out of experts; Appendix. Sources; References; Index.
520			_aPolicy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.
650		0	_aGovernment consultants.
650		0	_aBusiness consultants.
650		0	_aExpertise _xPolitical aspects.
650		0	_aSpecialists.
650		0	_aPublic administration _xDecision making.
650		0	_aBusiness _xDecision making.
776	0	8	_iPrint version: _z9781107112087
856	4	0	_uhttps://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316282472
999			_c516271 _d516269