000			02146nam a22003258i 4500
001			CR9780511574894
003			UkCbUP
005			20200124160258.0
006			m|||||o||d||||||||
007			cr||||||||||||
008			090522s1994||||enk o ||1 0|eng|d
020			_a9780511574894 (ebook)
020			_z9780521443685 (hardback)
040			_aUkCbUP _beng _erda _cUkCbUP
050	0	0	_aQA273 _b.P784 1994
082	0	0	_a519.2 _220
100	1		_aPoulton, E. C., _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aBehavioral decision theory : _ba new approach / _cE.C. Poulton.
264		1	_aCambridge : _bCambridge University Press, _c1994.
300			_a1 online resource (xix, 314 pages) : _bdigital, PDF file(s).
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
500			_aTitle from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).
520			_aThis book discusses the well known fallacies of behavioural decision theory. It shows that while an investigator is studying a well-known fallacy, he or she may introduce, without realizing it, one of the simple biases that are found in quantifying judgements. The work covers such fallacies as the apparent overconfidence that people show when they judge the probability of correctness of their answers to two-choice general knowledge questions using a one-sided rating scale; the apparent overconfidence in setting uncertainty bounds on unknown quantities when using the fractile method; the interactions between hindsight and memory; the belief that small samples are as reliable and as representative as large samples;; the regression fallacy in prediction; the availability and simulation fallacies; the anchoring and adjustment biases; and bias by frames. The aim of this book is to help readers to learn about the fallacies and thus to avoid them. As such, it will be useful reading for students and researchers in probability theory, statistics and psychology.
650		0	_aProbabilities.
650		0	_aFallacies (Logic)
776	0	8	_iPrint version: _z9780521443685
856	4	0	_uhttps://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511574894
999			_c520146 _d520144